As it is known to everyone about the UK’s slowdown of economy which was the worst hit since 11 years.UK went into the deepest recession of this time.Now,what the analysis says according to that India will be facing worst contraction of GDP in the June quarter which will be worst including G-20 countries.
The contraction which India is going to face will be worst due to the pandemic hit situation all around the country due to which everything was at standstill.Today the National Statistical Office is going to release the data from April-June period for FY21.It is said that it is going to be worst since 1996.As India’s lockdown started on 25th March and ended in May end.From June not a complete unlock was done but partial lifting was started.But for the businesses in the month of April and May were complete washouts.
Abheek Barua,chief economist at HDFC bank said that he expects GDP growth to contract 21% in June quarter compared with a growth of 3.1% in the March quarter.However,State Bank of India released a report it stated that Q1 FY21 real GDP de-growth would be now around 16.5%.Frequency indicators like Index of Industrial Production,PMI manufacturing,auto sales and many more.IIP contracted to around 36% and commercial vehicle sale contracted to around 84.8%.In this period if we check only the positive sign would be of farm sector which will grow around 3-4%.
NSO has to still predict many numbers into this,till now they have given a less number of data.They gave the reason of not providing data is due to glitch because there were many sectors which were not operating in this period.Chief India Economist of HSBC Pranjul Bhandari has said that there can be an overestimation of data by the NSO due to the lockdown situation,”The statistics office could announce GDP contraction to 17.5% without including the informal sector,if the sector is added than it would be almost 25% contraction when proper survey is included.
As the number of GDP number have started to come lets see what is the final report coming by the end of the day.By analysing that another article will be on that.