The stats for GDP from the period Apr-June are out and it has been the largest from all the countries.Many economists of different firms predicted many numbers into it and came out to be the winner of their judgment and analysis.If we take Bloomberg it predicted around 24.2% decline for this period.Despite giving monetary measures than too its been difficult for the county to find its right growth track.Lets see further what can happen in coming period.
As it is known that collecting the data for the Central Statistical Organization has been difficult due to many industries went for a complete lockdown.If we talk about the industry sector the contraction was upto 35% which is too high and severe than the industry of services which is around 23%.The reason that has stated is the two sub segments such as financial services and public domain need to be the counterweights.Moving on to the electricity and fuel consumption has shown how recovery can be done in industrial output.
One of the unlikely indicators is Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation which could give recovery cues.It is also concluded that producers are far from getting their prices back so demand is yet to revive in full strength.The gross GST which was collected in the month of July was around Rs 87,422 crore,14% lower than a year ago.E-way bill generation in the month of April,May,June,July were 16%,46%,79% & 88% and in the latest data of mid-august it is hovering around 80%.There were few surprises such as the agriculture sector growth at 3.4% was lower than expected.
Supporting sector was only of consumption which was around 16% it is not a good percentage.As it is said to be comparatively lower.Nominal GDP shrank from Rs 49 lakh crore in Q1FY20 to Rs 38 lakh crore from the last quarter around a drop of Rs 11 lakh crore.
So now in coming time monetary and fiscal policy needs to be strong and aggressive at the crease.RBI needs to work in full force so that they can maintain or control the GDP numbers and make such policies that benefits business man and they can try to surge demand in coming months.